Climb Trajectory Prediction Software Validation for Decision Support Tools and Simulation Models

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is the solution to capacity, safety, and efficiency problems that will result from an expected increase in traffic. Trajectory-based operations are identified in the NextGen Concept of Operations as a key capability required to ensure the success of NextGen; thus, it is essential that the accuracy of trajectory prediction software be tested and validated for all phases of flight. Trajectories are also modeled in fast-time simulation tools that are used to test future NextGen concepts and identify possible benefits or problems. The objective of this testing activity is to identify outliers during the climb phase of flight in the trajectory predictions of two decision support tools as well as in the trajectory modelers of two fast-time simulation models. The errors in trajectory prediction will also be examined by aircraft type in order to measure the accuracy of aircraft characteristics utilized in the tools.